Πολυκριτηριακή αξιολόγηση επενδύσεων σε έργα ανανεώσιμων πηγών ενέργειας
Μακρυβέλιος, Ευάγγελος Δ.
SubjectΑνανεώσιμες πηγές ενέργειας ; Multiple criteria decision making ; Περιβάλλον και ενέργεια ; Ηλεκτρική ενέργεια -- Παραγωγή
Increased interest for investment in renewable energy has been expressed in the last ten years. The scope of this study is two-fold: First, to provide a record on the investment interest that has been expressed for exploiting renewable energy for electricity generation in Greece in the period of 2001-2009 and to outline the major implications of this interest in major sectors of the economy, the society and the environment. Then, to develop a multi-criteria methodological framework for the evaluation of investment proposals. To address these issues, the investment interest is depicted by those investment proposals for renewable energy exploitation submitted to the Regulatory Authority for Energy (RAE) in Greece in the aforementioned time period and having received a positive opinion by RAE meeting several evaluation criteria. The number of proposals amount to 1328 and include investment proposals for wind parks, small hydro plants and photovoltaic stations for electricity generation, either in operation or planned to start operating in all thirteen administrative regions of Greece. To perform the multi-criteria evaluation for each renewable energy technology in each administrative region of Greece, a set of evaluation criteria have been defined. The synthesis of performances in the different criteria was achieved by using a method based on Multi-Criteria Value Theory. In addition, two different weighting techniques have been applied in order to extract the relative importance of the examined criteria, as perceived by different persons involved in the evaluation of projects in the framework of RAE. The methodology applied in this study, as well as the software used in the multi-criteria evaluation procedure has been developed by the Laboratory of Industrial & Energy Economics in the National Technical University of Athens and could potentially be used by R.A.E. for the evaluation of applications for licensing electricity generation following an expression of interest issued by RAE, especially in cases that there is either an upper threshold in the power (MW) licensed per region or in cases where there are competing interests in the RES investment projects to be implemented in the same region due to network limitations, development area overlaps or zoning limitations. The results of this study are presented for each technology both on the country level and on a regional level, providing valuable information for assessing the possibility to form a representative investment portfolio in order to meet the 40% target for electricity generation coming for renewable energy sources.