Ναυτιλιακοί οικονομικοί κύκλοι και η πρόσφατη χρηματοοικονομική κρίση ως εξωτερικό σοκ (Shipping business cycles and recent financial crisis as an external shock)
Δάφνος, Γεώργιος Κ.
Little doubt can exist about how closely related are the transport sector with economy as a whole. Transportation of goods and people comprises the backbone of the global economy as it allows competition to take place, provides incentives for innovations and new opportunities, gives access to new markets and promotes economic development. In fact, the close relationship between transport and economic development is widely accepted as several empirical researches have proved that in periods of economic growth (increasing GDP), demand for transport increases while in periods of economic downturn, demand for transport is reduced. Given the fact that almost 90% of global trade is conducted through maritime transport, one can easily perceive the utmost importance of shipping for global trade and economy. The recent financial crisis that erupted in 2008, which "infected" the real economy as well, exemplified in the most emphatic fashion the causal relationship that exists between the shipping industry and course of global economy. Between 2008 and 2009 international trade experienced the most dramatic decrease of the last 70 years in terms of both volumes and values. The shipping industry could not be left unaffected as this economic deterioration was reflected in ocean freight rates, ship values, available ship financing and other related sectors. One could attribute this downturn in the shipping business to the external shock of the 2008 financial crisis that took place, while others would argue that this development was simply a correction of a booming shipping market that went on for more than 6 years. Central concern of this thesis is to explore the effect that the recent financial crisis had on the shipping industry as an external shock in the context of shipping business cycles theory.