Στοχαστική μοντελοποίηση συνταξιοδοτικών ταμείων
Μωραΐτης, Πέτρος Γ.
SubjectΑσφάλιση, Κοινωνική -- Ελλάδα ; Συντάξεις -- Ελλάδα ; Στατιστική ανάλυση ; Οικονομετρική ανάλυση
The Social Security system is an integral part of the modern welfare state, which aims to provide citizens with the necessary collateral for the years during which they will no longer partake of the workforce of the country. Public pension funds, which include all employees without exception, depending on the sector of employment, must operate in such a manner as to create the necessary wealth for their members, wealth that will guarantee a decent standard of living for the elderly. To this end, they have developed methodologies and tools that allow a large degree of accuracy in predicting the future course of the Fund and techniques to compensate for any risks threatening its smooth operation. The recent financial crisis which struck in varying degrees all economies of the world, did not leave unaffected the various social security schemes. Any losses highlight the need for additional measures to shield the reserves of funds - public or private - from future crises sabotaging their viability. It is necessary to understand that if the losses in pension reserves are not addressed early and effectively, due to the long-term nature of the institution, the financial impact would be unacceptable. Numerous researchers and scholars have contributed to a better and more efficient modeling of the course of a pension scheme. Parameters are many and very often impossible to predict. This paper includes an attempt, via a simple approach based on historical data we have at our disposal, to outline the future of Social Security in Greece, and through those results we hope to discover vulnerabilities in the system, that if "cured" immediately and consistently will help offset the losses and render ourselves immune against such adverse conditions.