Το «αφανές χρέος» των συντάξεων και η μακροχρόνια δημοσιονομική σταθερότητα
KeywordsΑφανές χρέος ; Δημοσιονομικό κενό ; Βιωσιμότητα χρέους ; Διανεμητικό σύστημα ; Αναλύσεις βιωσιμότητας χρέους ; Δημόσιο χρέος ; Αφανείς υποχρεώσεις
Population ageing, particularly in developed countries, exacerbates the crisis in the pay-as-you-go pension schemes’ finances, aggravating primary fiscal imbalances. That is because the long-term sustainability of pay-as-you-go plans depends on the capacity of future generations to contribute to the system. Due to adverse demographic changes, transfer payments to social security, under the existing legal and institutional framework, are expected to increase in the coming decades, gradually converting implicit pension liabilities into explicit public debt. Therefore, implicit pension debt may be defined as the increase in the present value of net government pensions estimated under the assumption that both current tax rates and policies will be retained in the future. Implicit pension debt is the link in the chain between public debt, demographics, social security, macroeconomics, political economy, labour and capital markets, domestic production and effective demand. In this paper I attempt to investigate the relationship of the hidden pension liabilities with each of the factors in the previous chain, as well as their impact on fiscal stability.