Ανάλυση οικονομικών αποτελεσμάτων καθετοποιημένης εταιρίας ηλεκτρικής ενέργειας κατά το χρονικό διάστημα 2017-2019
Financial analysis and strategic management of vertical company in Greece electricity market, under regulatory obligations to reduce market share in period 2017-2019
KeywordsΑγορά ηλεκτρικής ενέργειας ; Μερίδιο αγοράς ; Ρυθμιστικό πλαίσιο ; Πιθανοτική ανάλυση ; Καθετοποιημένη εταιρία ; Μοντέλο στόχος ; Ελλάδα ; Electricity market ; Market share ; Regulatory framework ; Stochastic analysis ; Vertically integrated company ; Target model ; Greece
Scope of this Master Thesis is the economic analysis of a vertically integrated company under regulatory market share reduction in the Greek electricity market, in order to draw conclusions for strategy formulation during the period 2017-2019. The examined company’s market share reduction is caused by regulatory changes in the Greek electricity market, which derive from the obligations that Greece holds, according to the European Law and the Memorandum of understanding between the Hellenic Republic and the European Commission, for the complete electricity market liberalization. The first obligation is, that past 01.01.2020 no company can produce or import, directly or indirectly, electricity share greater than fifty per cent (50%) of the annual electricity production of Greek production units or imports. The second obligation is the implementation of an auction sales mechanism of forward electricity products with physical delivery and regulated starting price (NOME type of auction), in order to reduce the retail and wholesale market share of the former monopoly vertically integrated electricity company below fifty per cent (50%). The economic analysis of the examined company is based on a mathematical model which solves the economic dispatch problem, in order to determine production units generation and form the energy balance. The economic dispatch problem is an optimization problem, and by integrating the Monte Carlo technique, the model performs stochastic analysis of factors important to the problem solution. With this model, annual simulation of the Greek wholesale electricity market in its current form, during the period 2017-2019, is attempted, by mapping alternative scenarios, based on parameters that are characterized by uncertainty and are crucial for the market, taking into consideration not only parameters’ most likely variations (baseline scenarios), but also specific extreme parameters’ variations (special scenarios), in order to examine their impact on the energy balance. According to the results of the examined scenarios, conclusions are drawn and the strategy formulation factors that the examined vertically integrated company needs to focus on, in order to maximize its profits, taking into account the complexity and specific characteristics of the electricity market and its forthcoming radical restructuring with the adaptation of the current market model to the European Target Model for electricity markets coupling and integration, are discussed.