Εκτίμηση γραμμικών σχέσεων μεταξύ δεικτών γονιμότητας και βασικών δημογραφικών μεγεθών με την τεχνική Borgue - Palmore χρησιμοποιώντας περιφερειακά δεδομένα του πληθυσμού της Ελλάδας
Application of the Borgue - Palmore method to regional data on vital statistics and census material of the population of Greece
Τσιάκαλος, Παναγιώτης Ε.
The estimation of fertility measurement has a long history within the field of demography, as several methodologies have been proposed in order to search for appropriate techniques, while trying to reduce the problems of inadequacy and unreliability of the available data. In 1964, two American demographers, Donald Bogue and James Palmore, presented a study in which they used linear regression models to estimate the relationships between various fertility indicators. The method was applied in country level data and the results were impressive, as the correlations between the indicators were high and therefore the models successfully estimated each of them. One of the issues raised, was whether this technique could be applied to smaller population units In the current research, this method is applied to the 51 prefectures of Greece, in the years 1981, 1991 and 2001. The results of this study are quite different from those of Bogue and Palmore’s, as correlations and estimates are not as ideal as the two American demographers presented. This fact suggests that the method is probably applied more effectively in country level rather than regional level.