Ο ρόλος της ρευστότητας στις χρηματαγορές για την πραγματική οικονομία
Πουράνης, Νικόλαος - Αναστάσιος
The purpose of this thesis is to note if using information from stock market we can capture some important information about the current and the future state of economy. Our main tool for evaluating the process of economy is Liquidity. According to Waledd (2012) we should not concern liquidity just as a value, which represent the amount of buying or selling something, but he support that we must think Liquidity as a measure which represent the easiest of doing transactions without any difficulties and also liquidity means that the price of product haven’t much changed since from their buy. To measure economic activity we use GDP, Consumption, Investments and Unemployment Rate. Our investigation occurred in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) from Q1:1995 to Q3:2016, where in these years all of them faced incredible growth. To evaluate Liquidity on Stock Market we use ILR, RS, Bid – Ask Spread and Turnover of Stock Market. Employing the appropriate Tests we are able to find that there is ability for forecasting in short time using Liquidity measures and macroeconomic variables, in most circumstances. On the other hand our estimators do not offered for forecasting in long time. We apply 20 models which except from liquidity measures in each case they contain also some other variables which are Term Spread, Volatility of Stock Market, Premium Return of Stock Market and Real Rates. The results show that liquidity of stock market could be the basic tool for evaluation and estimation of economic activity. This could be very beneficial not only for investors but also for governments who want stable economic environment and growth.