Μεταβλητότητα ναύλων στον τομέα των τάνκερ
Freight rate volatility tankers' sector
Σκαντζούρη, Ευθυμία - Νεφέλη
KeywordsΝαυτιλία ; Τάνκερ ; Ναύλωση και ναύλος ; Μεταβλητότητα (volatility) ; Τιμές ; Επίδραση κρίσης ; Εποχικότητα ; Shipping ; Freight rates ; Prices ; Crisis effect ; Seasonality
This current dissertation deals with freight rate volatility in tankers’ sector. This sector, like other sectors in shipping industry consists of four markets. Three of them refer to vessels (new and used vessels, demolition of old vessels) and one refers to freight rates. These markets are closed interrelated. Freight rate market reaches in equilibrium through demand and supply forces like any other market in microeconomics level. Freight rate market is characterized by cyclic pattern in the context of shipping cycles. This happens due to an important time gap between decisions concerning supply (new vessels construction or demolition) and demand current level that creates disequilibrium. Adjustments efforts to equilibrium form, actually, shipping cycles which don’t have a constant period each. Consequently, based on shipping industry circumstances and on general circumstances in economy, freight rates level is characterized by some volatility which varies according to vessels size and whether freight is traded on spot market or on time-charter market. Based on empirical data concerning freight rate for several vessels size in tankers sector in period 2001-2015, it was found that the larger a vessel’s size is, the higher the volatility is. Moreover, volatility in spot market is found to be higher compared to volatility in time-charter market. Crisis increased freight rate volatility in spot market for each vessel’s size. In time-charter crisis increased freight rate volatility only for middle sized vessels. On the contrary, crisis decreased freight rate volatility for small sized vessels and didn’t affect volatility for large vessels. Finally, volatility seasonality was found in both spot and time charter market and for all vessels sizes. More particularly, higher volatility was found for winter months (north hemisphere) compared to lower volatility for autumn or spring for both hemispheres.