Πρόβλεψη των ναυτιλιακών ναύλων : ήταν αναμενόμενη η πρόσφατη πτώση τους;
KeywordsΝαυτιλιακός κλάδος ; Ναυτιλιακά ναύλα ; Εντός δείγματος πρόβλεψη ; Εκτός δείγματος πρόβλεψη ; Πρόσφατη πτώση ναυτιλιακών ναύλων ; Οικονομική κρίση ; Freight markets ; Freight rates ; In-sample forecasts ; Out-of-sample forecasts ; Recent low prices of freight rates ; Financial crisis
Forecasting freight rates is of great importance to ship-owners, charterers, investors and researchers. This dissertation aims at predicting their values, using the daily closing prices of three indices of the Baltic Exchange Organization and a set of economic variables. To this end, the approach of the future prices will be made through the use of econometric and statistical tools. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasts are to be conducted. The results of this process will allow us to check if it was possible to predict the recent fall in their prices during the period of financial crisis. Finally, we reached to the conclusion that the predictability of freight rates is indeed feasible, by using the prices of past figures and the values of some economic variables. Therefore, their recent low prices were expected which makes us believe that if they had been taken into account before this research was carried out, the effects caused by the shipping industry, could have possibly been reduced to some extent.